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  • Working Paper No. 1080 April 04, 2025

    Protecting Social Security: The Case Against Extending the Full Retirement Age

    Edward Lane
    Abstract

    The Social Security “full retirement age” (FRA) is the age at which retirement income benefits are available without reduction for early commencement. Presently, that age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later. This paper is about the unfair and unnecessary threat to reduce Social Security retirement income benefits (Romig 2023) by extending the […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1079 April 04, 2025

    Job Allocation in the Levy Institute Microsimulation Model

    Brandon Istenes
    Abstract

    The Levy Institute Microsimulation Model (LIMM) is a tool used for policy simulations to estimate ex-ante the employment and income effects of sectoral investments. In Istenes (2023), a simple implementation of the LIMM for New York State initially had difficulty producing realistic conditional distributions of allocated jobs. This paper identifies the sources of that problem, […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1078 April 01, 2025

    “A Concentration of Private Power without Equal in History”

    William Van Lear, and Daniel Hutchinson
    Abstract

    This manuscript presents a detailed summary and reassessment of the 1941 final report of the Temporary National Economic Committee (TNEC). We portion the manuscript into four major parts: background, major themes, assessment of the report, and additional analysis and reflection. In the first section, we cover what compelled the government’s investigation and we identify the […]

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  • Strategic Analysis March 26, 2025

    Greece: Growing on an Unsustainable Path

    Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
    Abstract

    Greece has been among the fastest growing economies among the EU member states in the post-COVID-19 period. However, in a previous (February 2024) report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza raised serious concerns regarding Greece’s dependency on imports. In their latest report, the authors argue that these problems have worsened, and the […]

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  • Public Policy Brief No. 158 March 04, 2025

    That “Vision Thing”: Formulating a Winning Policy Agenda

    Pavlina R. Tcherneva, and L. Randall Wray
    Abstract

    For a PDF version of this Public Policy Brief, please click here. There are many ways to lose a presidential election, and pundits have come up with a long list: President Biden hung on too long; voters still weren’t ready for a female of color—too many are racist and sexist; too many leftists supported third […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1077 February 11, 2025

    A Critical Examination of the “China Collapse” Narrative

    Yan Liang
    Abstract

    Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy—namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is present, consumer demand has been improving as the property market stabilized and policies to bolster domestic demand […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1076 February 07, 2025

    The Rise of the Modern Monetary System

    L. Randall Wray
    Abstract

    This working paper integrates the credit money approach (associated with Post Keynesian endogenous money theory) with the state money approach (associated with Modern Money Theory) by drawing on Wray’s 1990 book (Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies: The Endogenous Money Approach, Edward Elgar), his 1998 book (Understanding Modern Money: the Key to Full Employment and […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1075 January 23, 2025

    The High Cost of the Strong Peso and Its Temporary Nature: The Case of Mexico

    Arturo Huerta G.
    Abstract

    The article analyzes why exchange rate stability has been prioritized in Mexico and why the national currency has appreciated; which policies and factors have made this possible, the costs and consequences of the strong peso, and its sustainability and temporality are also examined. Mexico’s economy does not have the endogenous conditions necessary to maintain such […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1074 December 24, 2024

    Political Conflict, Green Capabilities, and Growth Patterns in a Kaleckian Small Open Economy

    José Eduardo Alatorre, Gabriel Porcile, Julia Juarez, and Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
    Abstract

    The paper presents a Kaleckian extended model exploring sustainable development, defined as growth that is economically stable, socially inclusive, and environmentally respectful. The model links CO2 emission trends with public investments in green capabilities, represented by the share of renewables in total energy supply. It incorporates three key actors: green capitalists (G), brown capitalists (B), […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1073 December 18, 2024

    Frankenstein in Fact and Fiction

    Robert Skidelsky
    Abstract

    This paper is based on remarks delivered at the EDI Keynote Lecture at Bard College, November 19th, 2024: ‘Frankenstein in Fact and Fiction.’ View a recording of the lecture on YouTube. As we all know, Frankenstein was the scientist in Mary Shelley’s 1818 novel of the same name, who invented a human machine—intended to be a […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1072 December 12, 2024

    Macro-Financial Models of Canadian Dollar Interest Rate Swap Yields

    Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of Canadian dollar–denominated (CAD) interest rate swap yields. It applies autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models, using monthly time series data, to estimate the effects of the current short-term interest rate and other relevant macro-financial variables on interest rate swap yields. It shows that the current short-term interest rate is a […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1071 December 10, 2024

    Tilting at Windmills

    James K. Galbraith, and Pavlina R. Tcherneva
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 14, May 2023 The Central Bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, has a dual mandate to maintain both full employment and price stability. However, inflation-fighting had always eclipsed the full employment objective without much accountability. Today, the Federal Reserve provides regular testimony before Congress on how […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1070 December 10, 2024

    Notes on Money as Technology

    Raúl A. Carrillo
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 20, June 2024 Scholars and affiliates of the Levy Economics Institute have long demonstrated a granular understanding of the “operations” of money, which entails understanding the financial system’s law and technology (Grey 2019, Tymoigne 2014, Fullwiler 2010, Bell and Wray 2002-3, Bell 2000). During the dot-com bubble, many […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1069 December 10, 2024

    Tax Credits Are Industrial Policy

    Chirag Lala
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 19, March 2024 The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is criticized for “derisking” private investment by increasing the gains to private firms. The derisking critique argues that the IRA insufficiently disciplines private firms; it does not utilize legal or financial penalties which would force firms to undertake green investment […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1068 December 10, 2024

    Monetary Power and Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises

    Karina Lima
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 17, March 2024 This paper challenges the prevailing view in the sovereign debt literature by arguing that sovereign debt markets, in many respects, behave similarly to other credit markets. These markets are hierarchical rather than flat, inherently hybrid in nature, blending elements of public order and private markets, […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1067 December 06, 2024

    Revisiting the Foreign Debt Problem and the “External Constraint” in the Periphery

    Ndongo Samba Sylla
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 16, March 2024 Most debates and policy proposals about Global South countries’ external debt problem take for granted the view that it is normal for their governments to issue debts denominated in foreign currencies. This paper tries to challenge this widely held and usually unquestioned assumption by relying […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1066 December 06, 2024

    Job Guarantee Program and the Kaleckian Dilemma

    Caio Vilella, and Eduardo F. Bastian
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 10, November 2023 Minsky (1965) has presented the Job Guarantee program as a recommendation in the war against unemployment and poverty. Kalecki (1943), on the other hand, argued that the full employment situation could be technically feasible but politically hard to implement due to the class struggle, resulting […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1065 December 06, 2024

    Resource Constraints and Economic Policy

    Yeva Nersisyan
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 09, 2023 This paper explains the MMT approach for evaluating the affordability of spending programs, contrasting it with the mainstream approach. Using the examples of the Green New Deal, Medicare-for-All, and Build Back Better, it argues that rethinking spending and taxes as claims on, and releases of resources, […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1064 December 06, 2024

    Seismic Shifts in Economic Theory and Policy from the Bernanke Doctrine to Modern Money Theory

    Pavlina R. Tcherneva, and Éric Tymoigne
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 08, 2022  This paper evaluates the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy and the relative effectiveness of macroeconomic stabilization through the lens of Modern Money Theory (MMT). We articulate previously-neglected aspects of monetary sovereignty to offer a new interpretation of the Bernanke Doctrine that emerged in the wake of […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1063 December 03, 2024

    Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an SFC Model of the Italian Economy

    Francesco Zezza
    Abstract

    Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–9, there has been a shift in mainstream economic policy modeling toward “realism,” with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models partly diverging from the representative agent framework, and large-scale, New-Keynesian structural models addressing real-financial interactions in greater detail. Still, the need for tractability of the former, and the lack […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1062 December 03, 2024

    The Value of Money

    L. Randall Wray
    Abstract

    This paper examines heterodox theories of the determinants of the value of money. Orthodox approaches that tie money’s value to relative scarcity of money or to the price level are rejected as inconsistent with the monetary theory of production embraced by heterodox traditions linked to Marx, Veblen, and Keynes. This paper examines and integrates (1) […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1061 November 26, 2024

    Modern Money Theory on Fiscal and Monetary Policies

    Éric Tymoigne
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 04, 2022 Drumetz and Pfister make several claims about the inadequacy and fallacies of Modern Money Theory (MMT) and conclude that MMT is nothing more than a political manifesto; there are no theoretical and empirical foundations behind it. This paper addresses this last point by focusing on the […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1060 November 26, 2024

    The Job Guarantee

    Pavlina R. Tcherneva
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 02, 2022 Orthodox economic theory presents the policy maker with an impossible choice: eradicate unemployment at the cost of undesirable inflation or keep prices stable by maintaining some level of involuntary unemployment. This is the canon, as embodied in the natural rate of unemployment theory and the Non-Accelerating […]

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  • Working Paper No. 1059 November 26, 2024

    Three Lessons from Government Spending and the Post-Pandemic Recovery

    Pavlina R. Tcherneva
    Abstract

    Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 01, 2021 The central lesson of the COVID-19 fiscal response is that money is not scarce. Without delay, governments around the world appropriated budgets that dwarfed any other postwar crisis policy. In 2020, Japan passed a stimulus package equal to 54.8 percent of GDP, while in the U.S., […]

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Bard College
Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000
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The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986 through the generous support of Bard College trustee Leon Levy, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, public policy research organization. The Levy Institute is independent of any political or other affiliation, and encourages diversity of opinion in the examination of economic policy issues while striving to transform ideological arguments into informed debate.