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1681 publications found
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Working Paper No. 947
February 06, 2020
Ages of Financial Instability
AbstractStarting from the mid-nineteenth century, this paper analyzes two periods of financial instability connected with financial globalization. The first culminates with the 1929 crisis, while the second characterizes the more recent experience starting from the 1970s. The period in between is divided into two subperiods. The first goes up to World War II and sees […]
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Working Paper No. 946
February 03, 2020
The Relationship between Technical Progress and Employment
AbstractWe show that Autor and Salomons’ (2017, 2018) analysis of the impact of technical progress on employment growth is problematic. When they use labor productivity growth as a proxy for technical progress, their regressions are quasi-accounting identities that omit one variable of the identity. Consequently, the coefficient of labor productivity growth suffers from omitted-variable bias, […]
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Working Paper No. 945
January 31, 2020
Demand, Distribution, Productivity, Structural Change, and (Secular?) Stagnation
AbstractThe present paper emphasizes the role of demand, income distribution, endogenous productivity reactions, and other structural changes in the slowdown of the growth rate of output and productivity that has been observed in the United States over the last four decades. In particular, it is explained that weak net export demand, fiscal conservatism, and the […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 148
January 31, 2020
Can We Afford the Green New Deal?
AbstractIn this policy brief, Yeva Nersisyan and Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray argue that assessing the “affordability” of the Green New Deal is a question of whether there are suitable and sufficient real resources than can be mobilized to implement this ambitious approach to climate policy. Only after a careful resource accounting can we address […]
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Strategic Analysis
January 23, 2020
Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy
AbstractThis Strategic Analysis examines the US economy’s prospects for 2020–23 and the risks that lie ahead. The baseline projection generated by the Levy Institute’s stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model shows that, given current fiscal arrangements and the slowdown in the global economy, the pace of the US recovery will slacken somewhat, with a growth rate that […]
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Strategic Analysis
January 17, 2020
Greece: In Search of Investors
Abstract2019 marked the third year of the continuing economic recovery in Greece, with real GDP and employment rising, albeit at modest rates. In this Strategic Analysis we note that the expansion has mainly been driven by net exports, with tourism playing a dominant role. However, household consumption and investment are still too far below their […]
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Working Paper No. 944
January 16, 2020
The Empirics of Canadian Government Securities Yields
AbstractKeynes argued that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. This paper empirically models the relationship between short-term interest rates and long-term government securities yields in Canada, after controlling for other important financial variables. The statistical analysis uses high-frequency daily data from 1990 to 2018. It applies both the […]
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Working Paper No. 943
January 15, 2020
Is China’s Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?
AbstractWhether China’s low fertility rate is the consequence of the country’s strict population control policy is a puzzling question. This paper attempts to disentangle the Chinese population control policy’s impacts on the fertility rate from socioeconomic factors using the synthetic control method proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003). The results indicate that the population control […]
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Book Series
January 10, 2020
A Great Leap Forward
AbstractA Great Leap Forward: Heterodox Economic Policy for the 21st Century investigates economic policy from a heterodox and progressive perspective. Author Randall Wray uses relatively short chapters arranged around several macroeconomic policy themes to present an integrated survey of progressive policy on topics of interest today that are likely to remain topics of interest for […]
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Working Paper No. 942
January 07, 2020
An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark
AbstractThis paper emphasizes the need for understanding the interdependencies between the real and financial sides of the economy in macroeconomic models. While the real side of the economy is generally well explained in macroeconomic models, the financial side and its interaction with the real economy remains poorly understood. This paper makes an attempt to model […]
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Working Paper No. 941
December 12, 2019
Wage Differential between Palestinian Non-refugees and Palestinian Refugees in the West Bank and Gaza
AbstractThis paper measures the wage differential between Palestinian non-refugees and Palestinian refugees in the West Bank and Gaza over the years 1999–2012. First, the main individual and occupational differences between the two groups in the two regions are presented. Then, the wage differential is decomposed into two components: a “human capital effect, explained part” and […]
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Working Paper No. 940
November 21, 2019
On the “Utilization Controversy”
AbstractThe critique by Gahn and González (2019) of the conclusions in Nikiforos (2016) regarding what data should be used to evaluate whether capacity utilization is endogenous to demand is weak for the following reasons: (i) The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) measure of utilization is not appropriate for measuring long-run variations of utilization because of the […]
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Testimony
November 20, 2019
Statement of Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray to the House Budget Committee, US House of Representatives
AbstractOn November 20, 2019, Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray testified before the House Committee on the Budget on the topic of reexamining the economic costs of debt: "In recent months a new approach to national government budgets, deficits, and debts—Modern Money Theory (MMT)—has been the subject of discussion and controversy. [. . .] In this […]
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Working Paper No. 939
October 18, 2019
The Macroeconomic Loss Due to Violence against Women and Girls
AbstractViolence against women and girls (VAWG) is a widely recognized human rights violation with serious consequences for the health and well-being of women and their families. However, the wider ramifications of VAWG for businesses, communities, economies, and societies are only recently being recognized. Despite this recognition, there are few studies exploring how the economic and social […]
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Working Paper No. 938
October 15, 2019
The Impact of the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy on Japanese Government Bonds’ Low Nominal Yields
AbstractNominal yields for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have been remarkably low for several decades. Japanese government debt ratios have continued to increase amid a protracted period of stagnant nominal GDP, low inflation, and deflationary pressures. Many analysts are puzzled by the phenomenon of JGBs’ low nominal yields because Japanese government debt ratios are elevated. However, […]
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Working Paper No. 937
October 04, 2019
Indian Fiscal Federalism at the Crossroads
AbstractThere is a growing recognition that fundamental changes are happening in Indian fiscal federalism ex post the abolition of the Planning Commission, the creation of the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog, the constitutional amendment to introduce the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the establishment of the GST Council, and the historically high tax […]
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Book Series
October 01, 2019
Challenges to Indian Fiscal Federalism
AbstractThe principle of fiscal federalism enshrined in India’s Constitution is under severe strain today. This book is a key addition to understanding the challenges involved. The authors capture the implications of the abolition of the Planning Commission, the introduction of the controversial Goods and Services Tax regime, and formulation of Terms of Reference of the […]
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Research Project Report
September 17, 2019
Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Impacts of Improving Physical and Social Infrastructure
AbstractFeminist economics has long emphasized the role of physical and social infrastructure as determinants of the time women spend on household production (the provision of unpaid domestic services and care). Surprisingly, there is a lack of studies that directly investigate how infrastructure improvements affect the time spent on household production and commuting to work, which […]
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Working Paper No. 936
September 04, 2019
Fiscal Reform to Benefit State and Local Governments
AbstractThis paper will present the Modern Money Theory approach to government finance. In short, a national government that chooses its own money of account, imposes a tax in that money of account, and issues currency in that money of account cannot face a financial constraint. It can make all payments as they come due. It […]
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Working Paper No. 935
August 22, 2019
Evolving International Monetary and Financial Architecture and the Development Challenge
AbstractThis paper investigates the peculiar macroeconomic policy challenges faced by emerging economies in today’s monetary (non)order and globalized finance. It reviews the evolution of the international monetary and financial architecture against the background of Keynes’s original Bretton Woods vision, highlighting the US dollar’s hegemonic status. Keynes’s liquidity preference theory informs the analysis of the loss […]
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Working Paper No. 934
August 22, 2019
An Analysis of the Daily Changes in US Treasury Security Yields
AbstractThis paper analyzes the dynamics of long-term US Treasury security yields from a Keynesian perspective using daily data. Keynes held that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. In this paper, the daily changes in long-term Treasury security yields are empirically modeled as a function of the daily changes […]
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One-Pager No. 60
July 26, 2019
Fighting Inequality Can Strengthen the US Economy
AbstractSenators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, along with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, recently proposed to increase the rate of taxation on very high incomes and net worth. One of the primary justifications for such policies is that reducing inequality would help safeguard political equality. However, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Michalis Nikiforos, and Gennaro Zezza show how these […]
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Working Paper No. 933
July 08, 2019
Defaultnomics
AbstractThe 2008 crisis created a need to rethink many aspects of economic theory, including the role of public intervention in the economy. On this issue, we explore the Barro-Ricardo equivalence, which has played a decisive role in molding the economic policies that fostered the crisis. We analyze the equivalence and its theoretical underpinnings, concluding that: […]
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Working Paper No. 932
June 26, 2019
Rethinking China’s Local Government Debt in the Frame of Modern Money Theory
AbstractLocal government debt in China is increasing and presents a great threat to China’s financial stability. In China’s fiscal system, the central government often prioritizes reducing its fiscal deficit and can determine to a great extent the distribution of revenue and expenditure between itself and local governments. There is therefore a tendency for the fiscal […]
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