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1681 publications found
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Working Paper No. 931
May 30, 2019
How to Pay for the Green New Deal
AbstractThis paper follows the methodology developed by J. M. Keynes in his How to Pay for the War pamphlet to estimate the “costs” of the Green New Deal (GND) in terms of resource requirements. Instead of simply adding up estimates of the government spending that would be required, we assess resource availability that can be […]
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Working Paper No. 930
May 21, 2019
A Semi-Parametric Approach to the Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition with Continuous Group Variable and Self-Selection
AbstractThis paper describes the application of a semiparametric approach, known as a varying coefficients model (Hastie and Tibshirani 1993), to implement a Oaxaca-Blinder type of decomposition in the presence of self-selection into treatment groups for a continuum of comparison groups. The flexibility of this methodology may allow for detecting heterogeneity of the role of endowment […]
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Working Paper No. 929
May 16, 2019
When to Ease Off the Brakes (and Hopefully Prevent Recessions)
AbstractIncreases in the federal funds rate aimed at stabilizing the economy have inevitably been followed by recessions. Recently, peaks in the federal funds rate have occurred 6–16 months before the start of recessions; reductions in interest rates apparently occurred too late to prevent those recessions. Potential leading indicators include measures of labor productivity, labor utilization, […]
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Policy Notes No. 2
May 16, 2019
Global Imbalances and the Trade War
AbstractAgainst the background of an ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, Senior Scholar Jan Kregel analyzes the potential for achieving international adjustment without producing a negative impact on national and global growth. Once the structure of trade in the current international system is understood (with its global production chains and large imbalances […]
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Working Paper No. 928
May 13, 2019
Democratizing Money
AbstractIn the Western interpretation of democracy, governments exist in order to manage relations of property, with absence of property ownership leading to exclusion from participation in governance and, in many cases, absence of equal treatment before the law. Democratizing money will therefore ensure equal opportunity to the ownership of property, and thus full participation in […]
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Working Paper No. 927
April 26, 2019
Recentered Influence Functions in Stata
AbstractRecentered influence functions (RIFs) are statistical tools popularized by Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009) for analyzing unconditional partial effects on quantiles in a regression analysis framework (unconditional quantile regressions). The flexibility and simplicity of these tools has opened the possibility of extending the analysis to other distributional statistics using linear regressions or decomposition approaches. In […]
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Working Paper No. 926
April 25, 2019
Fiscal Stabilization in the United States
AbstractThe debate about the use of fiscal instruments for macroeconomic stabilization has regained prominence in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and the experience of a monetary union equipped with fiscal shock absorbers, such as the United States, has often been a reference. This paper enhances our knowledge about the degree of macroeconomic stabilization achieved […]
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One-Pager No. 59
April 23, 2019
The Limitations of the “Populism” Explanation
AbstractSome common accounts of “populism” and its causes risk leading us away from understanding what is happening today in parts of the democratic West, according to Senior Scholar Joel Perlmann. He cautions that economic insecurity may well be a common source of populism, but such insecurity is too prevalent and too diverse to be tied […]
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Policy Notes No. 1
April 16, 2019
A Proposal to Create a European Safe Asset
AbstractWhile a consensus has formed that the eurozone’s economic governance mechanisms must be reformed, and some progress has been made on this front, what has been agreed to so far falls short of what is needed to address the central imbalances caused by the eurozone setup, according to Paolo Savona. The key elements that are […]
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Strategic Analysis
April 15, 2019
Can Redistribution Help Build a More Stable Economy?
AbstractAlthough the ongoing recovery is about to become the longest in the history of the United States, it is also the weakest in postwar history, and as we enter the second quarter of 2019, many clouds have gathered. This Strategic Analysis considers the recent trajectory, the present state, and the future prospects of the US […]
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Working Paper No. 925
April 08, 2019
An Institutional Analysis of China’s Reform of their Monetary Policy Framework
AbstractThis paper traces the history of China’s reform of its monetary policy framework and analyzes its success and problems. In the context of financial marketization and the failure of the quantity-targeting framework, the People’s Bank of China transformed its monetary policy framework toward one that targets interest rates. The reform includes two important institutional changes: […]
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Research Project Report
April 01, 2019
Investing in Early Childhood Education and Care in Kyrgyz Republic
AbstractExpansion of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services for all is a matter of the choices made regarding the allocation of public resources. As such, it is as much an issue of children’s well-being and gender equality as it is an issue of economic policy and fiscal allocation. This study—authored by Institute scholars Ipek […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 147
March 18, 2019
Globalization, Nationalism, and Clearing Systems
AbstractAs global market integration collides with growing demands for national political sovereignty, Senior Scholar Jan Kregel contrasts two diametrically opposed approaches to managing the tensions between international financial coordination and national autonomy. The first, a road not taken, is John Maynard Keynes’s proposal to reform the postwar international financial system. The second is the approach taken […]
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Working Paper No. 924
February 27, 2019
Induced Shifting Involvements and Cycles of Growth and Distribution
AbstractThe paper builds on the concept of (shifting) involvements, originally proposed by AlbertHirschman (2002 [1982]). However, unlike Hirschman, the concept is framed in class terms. A model is presented where income distribution is determined by the involvement of the two classes, capitalists and workers. Higher involvement by capitalists and lower involvement by workers tends to […]
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Working Paper No. 923
February 06, 2019
Economic Planning under Capitalism
AbstractBy the beginning of the 20th century, the possibility and efficacy of economic planning was believed to have been proven by totalitarian experiments in Germany, the Soviet Union, and, to a lesser degree, Fascist Italy; however, the possibilities and limitations of planning in capitalist democracies was unclear. The challenge in the United States in the […]
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Working Paper No. 922
February 05, 2019
It Pays to Study for the Right Job
AbstractWith the rapid increase in educational attainment, technological change, and greater job specialization, decisions regarding human capital investment are no longer exclusively about the quantity of education, but rather the type of education to obtain. The skills and knowledge acquired in specific fields of study are more valuable for some jobs compared to others, which […]
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Book Series
February 01, 2019
Macroeconomics
AbstractThis groundbreaking new core textbook encourages students to take a more critical approach to the prevalent assumptions around the subject of macroeconomics, by comparing and contrasting heterodox and orthodox approaches to theory and policy. The first such textbook to develop a heterodox model from the ground up, it is based on the principles of Modern […]
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Working Paper No. 921
January 29, 2019
Social Policy in Mexico and Argentina
AbstractThis paper is a comparison between two programs implemented to combat poverty in Latin America: Prospera (Prosper) in Mexico and Asignación Universal por Hijo (Universal Assignment for Child) in Argentina. The first section offers a review of the emergence of the welfare state, examining economic and urban development in both countries and the underlying trends of […]
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Working Paper No. 920
January 17, 2019
Macroeconomic Policy Effectiveness and Inequality
AbstractGender budgeting is a fiscal approach that seeks to use a country’s national and/or local budget(s) to reduce inequality and promote economic growth and equitable development. While the literature has explored the connection between reducing gender inequality and achieving growth and equitable development, more empirical analysis is needed on whether gender budgeting reduces gender inequality. […]
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Working Paper No. 919
January 16, 2019
On the Design of Empirical Stock-Flow-Consistent Models
AbstractWhile the literature on theoretical macroeconomic models adopting the stock-flow-consistent (SFC) approach is flourishing, few contributions cover the methodology for building a SFC empirical model for a whole country. Most contributions simply try to feed national accounting data into a theoretical model inspired by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie (2007), albeit with different degrees of […]
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Working Paper No. 918
December 13, 2018
Investment Decisions under Uncertainty
AbstractDivergent trends, as observed, between growth in the financial and real sectors of the global economy entail the need for further research, especially on the motivations behind investment decisions. Investments in market economies are generally guided by call-put option pricing models—which rely on an ergodic notion of probability that conforms to a normal distribution function. […]
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Policy Notes No. 5
November 29, 2018
Preventing the Last Crisis
AbstractTen years after the fall of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of the US financial system, most commentaries remain overly focused on the proximate causes of the last crisis and the regulations put in place to prevent a repetition. According to Director of Research Jan Kregel, there is a broader set of lessons, which can […]
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One-Pager No. 58
November 09, 2018
A Citizenship Question on the US Census
AbstractThe Trump administration is facing a legal challenge to its efforts to add a citizenship question to the 2020 decennial census—a question that was first included in 1890, but has not been asked of the entire population since 1950. If the citizenship question was asked in the past, why not reinstate it? Senior Scholar Joel […]
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Working Paper No. 917
October 22, 2018
Two Harvard Economists on Monetary Economics
AbstractIn November 1987, Hyman Minsky visited Bogotá, Colombia, after being invited by a group of professors who at that time were interested in post-Keynesian economics. There, Minsky delivered some lectures, and Lauchlin Currie attended two of those lectures at the National University of Colombia. Although Currie is not as well-known as Minsky in the American […]
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