Publications

1681 publications found

• Working Paper No. 1023 July 14, 2023

  Climate Change and Fiscal Marksmanship

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, Amandeep Kaur, Ajay Narayan Jha, and Balamuraly B
  Abstract

  According to the theory of efficient markets, economic agents use all available information to form rational expectations. The rational expectations hypothesis asserts that information is scarce, the economic system generally does not waste information, and that expectations depend specifically on the structure of the entire system. Fiscal marksmanship—the accuracy of budgetary forecasting—can be one important […]

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• Working Paper No. 1022 July 12, 2023

  Has the Time for a European Job Guarantee Policy Arrived?

  Rania Antonopoulos
  Abstract

  As country after country in the European Union is called to respond to the current challenge of our time—high inflation and declining real wages—governments must engage in a transformative agenda and go beyond emergency energy vouchers and income support cash-transfers. And if the goal is to lead the way to a resilient and sustainable European […]

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• Working Paper No. 1021 June 29, 2023

  Can It Be Prevented This Time?

  Giuseppe Mastromatteo, and Lorenzo Esposito
  Abstract

  Since the nineties, crises have punctuated financial markets, shattering the conventional wisdom about how these markets work and how to regulate them, and forcing a deep rethinking of the supervisory framework that, however, did not change much of the banks’ behavior and incentives. In particular, banking regulation did not face the nexus profitability-riskiness. Based on […]

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• Working Paper No. 1020 June 28, 2023

  The Macrodynamics of Indian Rupee Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling for other factors, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the […]

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• Working Paper No. 1019 May 08, 2023

  An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)–denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change […]

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• Working Paper No. 1018 April 21, 2023

  The Unbearable Weight of Aging

  L. Randall Wray, Yeva Nersisyan, and Xinhua Liu
  Abstract

  The aging of the global population is in the headlines following a report that China’s population fell as deaths surpassed births. Pundits worry that a declining Chinese workforce means trouble for other economies that have come to rely on China’s exports. France is pushing through an increase of the retirement age in the face of […]

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• Working Paper No. 1017 April 12, 2023

  Rentiers, Strategic Public Goods, and Financialization in the Periphery

  Gabriel Porcile, and Gilberto Tadeu Lima
  Abstract

  This paper revisits a traditional theme in the literature on the political economy of development, namely how to redistribute rents from traditional exporters of natural resources toward capitalists in technology-intensive sectors with a higher potential for innovation and the creation of higher-productivity jobs. Porcile and Lima argue that this conflict has been reshaped in the […]

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• Working Paper No. 1016 February 23, 2023

  Monetary Policy and the Gender and Racial Employment Dynamics in Brazil

  Patricia Couto, and Clara Brenck
  Abstract

  Monetary policy has been historically concerned with controlling inflation, using the interest rate as its main tool. However, such policies are not gender- or race-neutral. This paper explores econometrically the effect of changes in the interest rate for female and black employment creation in Brazil. We conduct a panel data fixed effects analysis for 13 […]

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• Working Paper No. 1015 February 20, 2023

  CBDC Next-Level: A New Architecture for Financial “Super-Stability” 

  Biagio Bossone, and Michael Haines
  Abstract

  Fractional reserve regimes generate fragile banking, and full reserve regimes (e.g., narrow banking) remove fragility at the cost of suppressing the role of banks as lenders. A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) could provide safe money, but at the cost of potentially disrupting bank lending. Our aim is to avoid this potential disruption. Building on […]

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• Working Paper No. 1014 February 16, 2023

  Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in the past several decades. Going forward, interest rate swaps are likely to have an important role in the Chinese financial system. This paper shows that […]

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• Working Paper No. 1013 January 18, 2023

  The Economic and Environmental Effects of a Green Employer of Last Resort

  Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, Nikolaos Rodousakis, and George Soklis
  Abstract

  We assess the sectoral impact of the implementation of a “green” employer of last resort (ELR) program in the US, based on an environmental modification of an extended Kurz’s (1985) multiplier framework and data from OECD Input-Output tables. We use these multipliers to estimate the impact of an “optimal” ELR, designed to maximize the impact […]

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• Working Paper No. 1012 December 16, 2022

  An Analysis of UK Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  John Maynard Keynes argued that the central bank influences the long-term interest rate through the effect of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. However, Keynes's claim was confined to the behavior of the long-term government bond yield. This paper investigates whether Keynes's claim holds for the yields of spread products and over-the-counter financial […]

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• One-Pager December 07, 2022

  The Causes of Pandemic Inflation

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  While the trigger for the Covid recession was unusual—a collapse of the supply side that produced a drop in demand—the inflation the US economy is now facing is not atypical, according to L. Randall Wray. In this one-pager, he explores the causes of the current inflationary environment, arguing that continuing inflation pressures come mostly from […]

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• Strategic Analysis October 13, 2022

  Greece: Recovery, or Another Recession?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  In this strategic analysis, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza, and Research Associate Nikolaos Rodousakis discuss the medium-term prospects for the Greek economy in a time of increasing uncertainty—due to the geopolitical turbulence emanating from the Ukraine–Russian conflict, with its impact on the cost of energy, as well as the increase in […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, October 2022 PDF (1.18 MB)
• Strategic Analysis October 13, 2022

  Ελλάδα: Ανάκαμψη, ή μια νέα Ύφεση;

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Nikolaos Rodousakis
  Abstract

  Σε αυτή τη στρατηγική ανάλυση, ο Πρόεδρος του Ινστιτούτου Δημήτρης Παπαδημητρίου, ο ερευνητής Gennaro Zezza και ο επιστημονικός συνεργάτης Νίκος Ροδουσάκης αναλύουν τις μεσοπρόθεσμες προοπτικές για την ελληνική οικονομία, σε μια περίοδο αυξανόμενης αβεβαιότητας, λόγω των γεωπολιτικών αναταραχών που προέρχονται από την Ρώσο-Ουκρανική σύγκρουση με αντίκτυπό το υψηλό κόστος ενέργειας και αυξημένων διεθνών τιμών εισαγόμενων […]

  Download ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΣΤΡΑΤΗΓΙΚΗ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ 10 2022 PDF (1.27 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1011 September 27, 2022

  The Dynamics of Monthly Changes in US Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper investigates whether Keynes's conjecture also holds for the monthly changes in […]

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• Working Paper No. 1010 September 06, 2022

  Reflections on Angela Merkel’s Career as Chancellor of Germany and the Greek Financial Odyssey

  George Zestos, Harrison Whittleton, and Alejandro Fernandez-Ribas
  Abstract

  Angela Merkel is the second-longest-serving chancellor of modern Germany, with more than 16 years in office. During her tenure there were many years of economic stability, but there were also years of domestic, EU, and geopolitical tensions. Merkel inherited an economy that was recovering after the launching of probusiness policies known as the Hartz I […]

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• Strategic Analysis August 11, 2022

  Avoiding a Recession

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Michalis Nikiforos, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza analyze how and why the US economy has achieved a swift recovery in comparison with the last few economic cycles. This recovery has nevertheless been accompanied by significant increases in the trade deficit and inflation. Papadimitriou, Nikiforos, and […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, August 2022 PDF (2.20 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1009 August 08, 2022

  Efficacy of Public Financial Management in Reducing Crime against Children

  Lekha S. Chakraborty
  Abstract

  Public financial management (PFM) has a significant role in linking resources to results by financing human development outcomes. When economic stimulus packages are short run in nature, thematic PFM, such as child budgeting, has a crucial role in reducing crime against children. Using fixed effects models, we explore the determinants of reduced crime against children. […]

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• Policy Notes No. 4 August 05, 2022

  Social State and Competitiveness

  Alexandra Papaisidorou, and Emmanouil Karakostas
• Policy Notes No. 4 August 05, 2022

  Κοινωνικό κράτος και ανταγωνιστικότητα

  Alexandra Papaisidorou, and Emmanouil Karakostas
  Abstract

  Με τη δημοσίευση το 1971 της Θεωρίας της δικαιοσύνης του Rawls μας προσφέρεται μια πλήρως επεξεργασμένη πρόταση για τη δίκαιη κοινωνία και τους βασικούς θεσμούς της. Η κοινωνία αυτή είναι μια δημοκρατική κοινωνία που διέπεται από τη δικαιοσύνη ως ακριβοδικία, δηλαδή μια κοινωνία όπου όλοι οι πολίτες θα απολαμβάνουν συμβατά μεταξύ τους δικαιώματα και ελευθερίες, […]

  Download Σημείωση Πολιτικής 2022/4 PDF (145.80 KB)
• Research Project Report June 30, 2022

  Assessing the Impact of Childcare Expansion in Mexico

  Rania Antonopoulos, Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, Fernando Rios-Avila, and Luiza Nassif Pires
  Abstract

  There is broad consensus in both research and policy circles that one of the key reasons for a lack of progress in reducing gender gaps in employment and wages is the persistent gender imbalance in unpaid work, three-quarters of which is performed by women. Universal access to quality care services enables the reduction of this […]

  Download Research Project Report, June 2022 PDF (1.25 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1008 May 24, 2022

  A GARCH Approach to Modeling Chilean Long-Term Swap Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of the Chilean interbank swap yields based on macroeconomic factors. It examines whether the month-over-month change in the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for other factors, such as the change in inflation, change in the growth of industrial production, change […]

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• Working Paper No. 1007 May 12, 2022

  School Performance and Child Labor

  Sameh Hallaq, and Ayman Khalifah
  Abstract

  The current study aims to investigate the impact of academic achievement on child labor. The study utilizes survey data collected from Palestinian children in West Bank schools who are in the primary grades (5th–9th). The results show that increasing a child’s academic achievement is significantly associated with decreasing the probability that a child works for […]

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