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1681 publications found
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Working Paper No. 960
July 09, 2020
Fiscal Policy in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
AbstractFiscal policy is useful as a government instrument for supporting the economy, contributing to an increase in employment, and reducing inequality through more egalitarian income distribution. Over the past 30 years, developing countries have failed to increase their real wages due to the lack of domestic value-added in the era of globalization, where global supply […]
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Book Series
July 07, 2020
The Case for a Job Guarantee
AbstractOne of the most enduring ideas in economics is that unemployment is both unavoidable and necessary for the smooth functioning of the economy. This assumption has provided cover for the devastating social and economic costs of job insecurity. It is also false. In this book, leading expert Pavlina R. Tcherneva challenges us to imagine a world where the phantom of […]
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Working Paper No. 959
June 25, 2020
Distribution and Gender Effects on the Path of Economic Growth
AbstractThis paper applies a robust empirical methodology, which considers issues relating to cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, to inspect the contributions of gender equality and factor income distribution to an economy’s growth path. A dynamic model of aggregate demand is estimated on a unique panel dataset from 46 countries that are further grouped into developed […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 151
June 16, 2020
Crisis, Austerity, and Fiscal Expenditure in Greece
AbstractThis policy brief provides a discussion of the relationships between austerity, Greece’s macroeconomic performance, debt sustainability, and the provision of healthcare and other social services over the last decade. It explains that austerity was imposed in the name of debt sustainability. However, there was a vicious cycle of recession and austerity: each round of austerity […]
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Working Paper No. 958
June 12, 2020
A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy
AbstractMacroeconomists and political officers need rigorous, albeit realistic, quantitative models to forecast the future paths and dynamics of some variables of interest while being able to evaluate the effects of alternative scenarios. At the heart of all these models lies a standard macroeconomic module that, depending on the degree of sophistication and the research questions […]
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Working Paper No. 957
June 05, 2020
Notes on Intersectional Political Economy
AbstractThis paper presents a critique of Karl Marx’s labor theory of value and his theory of falling profit rates from an intersectional political economy perspective. Specifically, I rely on social reproduction theory to propose that Marx-biased technical change disrupts the social order and leads to competition between workers. The bargaining power of workers cannot be […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 150
June 03, 2020
The Impact of Technological Innovations on Money and Financial Markets
AbstractAccording to Senior Scholar Jan Kregel and Paolo Savona, attempting to maintain the status quo in the face of the introduction of some recent technological innovations—chiefly cryptocurrencies and associated instruments based on distributed ledger technology, the deployment of artificial intelligence, and the use of data science in financial markets—will create risks that increase instability and […]
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Working Paper No. 956
May 19, 2020
An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates
AbstractThis paper empirically models the dynamics of Brazilian government bond (BGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data in the context of the evolution of Brazil’s key macroeconomic variables. The results show that the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on BGBs’ long-term interest rates after controlling for various key macroeconomic variables, such as […]
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Working Paper No. 955
May 13, 2020
Class Size, Cognitive Abilities, Bullying, and Violent Behavior
AbstractThis study uses rich administrative and survey data to investigate the effects of class size on students’ cognitive tests as well as bullying and violent behavior. I use the maximum class size rule to create a regression discontinuity (RD) relation between cohort enrollment size and class size in the public and the United Nations Relief […]
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Policy Notes No. 4
May 05, 2020
Guaranteeing Employment during the Pandemic and Beyond
AbstractThe ongoing job losses, already numbering in the tens of millions, and the mass unemployment that will remain once the COVID-19 crisis has passed are of our own making, argues Pavlina R. Tcherneva, created by our inability to conceive of policies that protect and create jobs on demand. There is another option: instead of capitulating […]
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Working Paper No. 954
April 30, 2020
Household Consumption, Household Indebtedness, and Inequality in Turkey
AbstractThis paper examines whether relative income and income inequality within reference groups affect household consumption. Using the explanations of consumption behavior based on Dusenberry’s relative income hypothesis, we test if household consumption levels in Turkey are affected by the household’s relative position and inequality in the reference group between 2005–12 by employing cross-sectional household-level data. […]
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Working Paper No. 953
April 24, 2020
Notes on the Accumulation and Utilization of Capital
AbstractThe paper makes three contributions. First, following up on Nikiforos (2016), it provides an in-depth examination of the Federal Reserve measure of capacity utilization and shows that it is closer to a cyclical indicator than a measure of long run variations of normal utilization. Other measures, such as the average workweek of capital or the […]
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Working Paper No. 952
April 24, 2020
Notes on the Accumulation and Utilization of Capital
AbstractThis paper discusses some issues related to the triangle between capital accumulation, distribution, and capacity utilization. First, it explains why utilization is a crucial variable for the various theories of growth and distribution—more precisely, with regards to their ability to combine an autonomous role for demand (along Keynesian lines) and an institutionally determined distribution (along […]
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Policy Notes No. 3
April 20, 2020
Immigration Policy Undermines the US Pandemic Response
AbstractResearch Scholar Martha Tepepa explains how the US response to the COVID-19 crisis will be hindered by its approach to immigration policy. The administration’s “zero tolerance” immigration campaign creates a public health risk in the context of this pandemic, and the recent implementation of the “Inadmissibility on Public Charge Grounds” final rule penalizing noncitizen recipients […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 149
April 14, 2020
Pandemic of Inequality
AbstractThe costs of the COVID-19 pandemic—in terms of both the health risks and economic burdens—will be borne disproportionately by the most vulnerable segments of US society. In this public policy brief, Luiza Nassif-Pires, Laura de Lima Xavier, Thomas Masterson, Michalis Nikiforos, and Fernando Rios-Avila demonstrate that the COVID-19 crisis is likely to widen already-worrisome levels […]
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One-Pager No. 63
April 10, 2020
Are We All MMTers Now? Not so Fast
AbstractAs governments around the world explore ambitious approaches to fiscal and monetary policy in their responses to the COVID-19 crisis, Modern Money Theory (MMT) has been thrust into the spotlight once again. Unfortunately, many of those invoking the theory have misrepresented its central tenets, according Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray. MMT provides an analysis […]
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Working Paper No. 951
April 10, 2020
A Simple Model of the Long-Term Interest Rate
AbstractThis paper presents a simple model of the long-term interest rate. The model represents John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that the central bank’s actions influence the long-term interest rate primarily through the short-term interest rate, while allowing for other important factors. It relies on the geometric Brownian motion to formally model Keynes’s conjecture. Geometric Brownian motion […]
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Working Paper No. 950
April 08, 2020
Public Charge in the Time of Coronavirus
AbstractThe United States government recently passed legislation and stabilization packages to respond to the COVID-19 (i.e., coronavirus disease 2019) outbreak by providing paid sick leave, tax credits, and free virus testing; expanding food assistance and unemployment benefits; and increasing Medicaid funding. However, the response to the global pandemic might be hindered by the lassitude of […]
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Policy Notes No. 2
April 03, 2020
Stabilizing State and Local Budgets through the Pandemic and Beyond
AbstractThe federal government appears to have abandoned the idea of a coordinated public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving the entirety to state and local governments. Meanwhile, the economic standstill resulting from necessary public health measures will soon cripple state and local budgets. Alexander Williams outlines a proposal for an intragovernmental automatic stabilizer program […]
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Policy Notes No. 1
March 19, 2020
When Two Minskyan Processes Meet a Large Shock
AbstractThe spread of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) is a major shock for the US and global economies. Research Scholar Michalis Nikiforos explains that we cannot fully understand the economic implications of the pandemic without reference to two Minskyan processes at play in the US economy: the growing divergence of stock market prices from output prices, […]
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One-Pager No. 62
March 13, 2020
The Economic Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic
AbstractAs the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads across the United States, it has become clear that, in addition to the public health response (which has been far less than adequate), an economic response is needed. Yeva Nersisyan and Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray identify four steps that require immediate attention: (1) full coverage of medical costs associated […]
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One-Pager No. 61
March 10, 2020
A Global Slowdown Will Test US Corporate Fragility
AbstractThe rapidly growing uncertainty about the potential global fallout from an emerging pandemic is occurring against a background in which there is evidence US corporate sector balance sheets are significantly overstretched, exhibiting a degree of fragility that, according to some measures, is unmatched in the postwar historical record. The US economy is vulnerable to a […]
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Working Paper No. 949
February 12, 2020
A Labor Market–Augmented Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Model Applied to the Greek Economy
AbstractThis paper extends the empirical stock-flow consistent (SFC) literature through the introduction of distributional features and labor market institutions in a Godley-type empirical SFC model. In particular, labor market institutions, such as the minimum wage and the collective bargaining coverage rate, are considered as determinants of the wage share and, in turn, of the distribution […]
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Working Paper No. 948
February 10, 2020
Challenges for the EU as Germany Approaches Recession
AbstractThis paper analyzes recent macroeconomic developments in the eurozone, particularly in Germany. Several economic indicators are sending signals of a looming German recession. Geopolitical tensions caused by trade disputes between the United States and China, plus the risk of a disorderly Brexit, began disrupting the global supply chain in manufacturing. German output contraction has been […]
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