Publications

1684 publications found

• Working Paper No. 981 January 19, 2021

  What Jobs Should a Public Job Guarantee Provide?

  Daniel Haim
  Abstract

  The job guarantee is a viable policy option for tackling both unemployment and underemployment. Hyman P. Minsky was one of the seminal writers on this subject. The first part of this working paper provides a survey of Minsky’s writings to identify what kind of jobs he had in mind when recommending employer-of-last-resort policies. Minsky favored: […]

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• Working Paper No. 980 December 01, 2020

  Balance Sheet Effects of a Currency Devaluation

  Lorenzo Nalin, and Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  Abstract

  This working paper empirically and theoretically analyzes the exchange rate’s role in Mexico’s development for the period 2004–19. We test the hypothesis of the re(emergence) of the balance sheet effect due to an increase in external debt in the nonfinancial corporate sector; higher foreign debt would affect private investment after episodes of real currency depreciation, […]

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• Working Paper No. 979 November 20, 2020

  Is It Time to Eliminate Federal Corporate Income Taxes?

  L. Randall Wray, and Edward Lane
  Abstract

  As the nation is experiencing the need for ever-increasing government expenditures to address COVID-19 disruptions, rebuild the nation’s infrastructure, and many other worthy causes, conventional thinking calls for restoring at least a portion corporate taxes eliminated by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, especially from progressive circles. In this working paper, Edward Lane and […]

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• Working Paper No. 978 November 16, 2020

  Potential Impact of Daycare Closures on Parental Child Caregiving in Turkey

  Ebru Kongar, and Emel Memiş
  Abstract

  Daycares closed on March 16, 2020 in Turkey to prevent the spread of COVID-19. At the same time, the two most common nonparental childcare arrangements in Turkey—care of children by grandparents and nannies—became undesirable due to health concerns and in some cases also unfeasible due to the partial lockdown for individuals under the age of […]

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• Working Paper No. 977 November 16, 2020

  A Note Concerning Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram
  Abstract

  This paper relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly […]

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• Working Paper No. 976 November 11, 2020

  The Palestinian Labor Market over the Last Three Decades

  Sameh Hallaq
  Abstract

  This paper consists of three economic literature review essays that survey the Palestinian labor market during the last three decades. The first essay examines the economic return to schooling since 1981 until the recent period, taking into consideration the major shocks that the Palestinian economy experienced, such as the First and Second Palestinian Intifadas (1987–93 […]

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• Working Paper No. 975 November 05, 2020

  Argentina’s (Macroeconomic?) Trap

  Sebastian Valdecantos
  Abstract

  The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the […]

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• Policy Notes No. 6 October 15, 2020

  Alternative Macro Policy Response for a Pandemic Recession

  Jan Kregel
  Abstract

  As COVID-19 infection and test positivity rates rise in the United States and federal stimulus plans expire, Senior Scholar Jan Kregel articulates an alternative approach to analyzing the economic problems raised by the pandemic and organizing an appropriate policy response. In contrast to both the mainstream and some Keynesian-inspired approaches, Kregel advocates a central role […]

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• Strategic Analysis October 06, 2020

  When Will Italy Recover?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, and Francesco Zezza
  Abstract

  Italy was the first European country to be impacted by COVID-19, rapidly overwhelming healthcare facilities in some areas and prompting the government to shut down nonessential economic activities, with an inevitable (asymmetric) impact on production and income. Though the gradual reopening of most business activities began in 2020Q3, the extent of the shutdown’s damage is […]

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• Working Paper No. 974 October 05, 2020

  The General Theory as “Depression Economics”?

  Jörg Bibow
  Abstract

  This paper revisits Keynes’s writings from Indian Currency and Finance (1913) to The General Theory (1936) with a focus on financial instability. The analysis reveals Keynes’s astute concerns about the stability/fragility of the banking system, especially under deflationary conditions. Keynes’s writings during the Great Depression uncover insights into how the Great Depression may have informed […]

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• Working Paper No. 973 October 01, 2020

  The Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment in an MMT World

  Emilio Carnevali, and Matteo Deleidi
  Abstract

  This paper is focused on Modern Monetary Theory’s (MMT) treatment of inflation from an open economy perspective. It analyzes how the inflation process is explained within the MMT framework and provides empirical evidence in support of this vision. However, it also makes use of a stock-flow consistent (open economy) model to underline some limits of […]

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• Working Paper No. 972 September 30, 2020

  In the Long Run We Are All Herd

  Giuseppe Mastromatteo, and Lorenzo Esposito
  Abstract

  Since the 2008 crisis, the economics literature has shown a renewed interest in Keynes’s “beauty contest” (BC) as a fundamental aspect of the functioning of financial markets. We argue that to understand the importance of the BC, psychological and informational factors are of small importance, and a dynamic-structural approach should be followed instead: the BC […]

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• Working Paper No. 971 September 28, 2020

  Ecology, Economics, and Network Dynamics

  Tai Young-Taft, Harold M. Hastings, and Chih-Jui Tsen
  Abstract

  In a seminal 1972 paper, Robert M. May asked: “Will a Large Complex System Be Stable?” and argued that stability (of a broad class of random linear systems) decreases with increasing complexity, sparking a revolution in our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Twenty-five years later, May, Levin, and Sugihara translated our understanding of the dynamics of […]

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• Working Paper No. 970 September 25, 2020

  Quality of Match for Statistical Matches Used in the Development of the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty (LIMTCP) for Ethiopia and South Africa

  Fernando Rios-Avila
  Abstract

  This paper presents a description of the quality of match of the statistical matches used in the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty (LIMTCP) estimates prepared for Ethiopia and South Africa. For Ethiopia, the statistical match combines the Ethiopian Socio-economic Survey—Wave 3—2015/2016 (ESS) with the Ethiopian Time Use Survey (ETUS) 2013. For South […]

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• Working Paper No. 969 September 24, 2020

  The Empirics of UK Gilts’ Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Huiqing Li
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities (“gilts”) based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts’ nominal yields. These models bring to light the complex dynamics relating the nominal yields on gilts […]

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• Working Paper No. 968 September 14, 2020

  The COVID-19 Crisis

  Leonardo Burlamaqui, and Ernani T. Torres Filho
  Abstract

  The COVID-19 crisis paralyzed huge parts of the planet in weeks. It not only infected the population but injected a gargantuan dose of uncertainty into the system. In that regard, as in many others, it is a phenomenon without precedent. As of the time of writing (May–June 2020), we are witnessing, simultaneously, a health crisis, […]

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• Working Paper No. 967 September 07, 2020

  Quality of Statistical Match Used in the Estimation of the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Income Poverty (LIMTIP) for Italy 2008 and 2014 and Preliminary Results

  Erica Aloè
  Abstract

  This paper assesses the quality of the statistical matching used in the LIMTIP estimates for Italy for 2008 and 2014. The match combines the 2008–9 and 2013–14 Italian Time Use Survey (IT-TUS) with the Italian data collected for the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions (IT-SILC) in 2009 and 2015. After the matching, the […]

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• Public Policy Brief No. 153 September 04, 2020

  Multidimensional Inequality and COVID-19 in Brazil

  Laura Carvalho, Luiza Nassif Pires, and Eduardo Rawet
  Abstract

  After spending over 6 percent of GDP responding to the COVID-19 crisis, Brazil has suffered among the worst per capita numbers in the world in terms of cases and deaths. In this policy brief, Luiza Nassif-Pires, Laura Carvalho, and Eduardo Rawet explore how stark inequalities along racial, regional, and class lines can help account for […]

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• One-Pager No. 64 August 19, 2020

  Moral Hazard and the State Budget Crisis

  Alex Williams
  Abstract

  As congressional negotiations stall and state governments are poised to enact significant austerity, Alex Williams argues that fiscal aid to state governments should be tied to economic indicators rather than the capriciousness of federal legislators. Building this case for reform requires confronting a common objection: that state fiscal aid creates situations of moral hazard. This […]

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• Public Policy Brief No. 152 August 10, 2020

  Moral Hazard in a Modern Federation

  Alex Williams
  Abstract

  The mainstream fiscal federalism literature has led to an instinctive belief that states receiving fiscal aid during a recession are taking advantage of the federal government in pursuit of localized benefits with dispersed costs. This policy brief by Alex Williams challenges this unreflective argument and, in response, offers a novel framework for understanding the relationship […]

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• Working Paper No. 966 August 03, 2020

  Developing a Macro-Micro Model for Analyzing Gender Impacts of Public Policy

  Susan Himmelweit, and Jerome De Henau
  Abstract

  This paper discusses new methods of combined macro-micro analysis of labor demand and supply to investigate the gender impacts of public policy. In particular it examines how studies have used input-output analysis together with more or less sophisticated methods of allocating people to jobs to model the impact of public investment in care on the […]

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• Working Paper No. 965 July 28, 2020

  First Palestinian Intifada and Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital

  Sameh Hallaq
  Abstract

  This paper attempts to estimate the intergenerational transmission of human capital in Palestine. The main question is whether formal parental education improves their offspring’s cognitive skills and school achievements. I use the instrumental variable (IV) method in the estimations to overcome the potential endogeneity of parental education. The main source of variation in parental educational […]

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• Working Paper No. 964 July 27, 2020

  Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, Pinaki Chakraborty, and Ruzel Shrestha
  Abstract

  Budget credibility, or the ability of governments to accurately forecast macro-fiscal variables, is crucial for effective public finance management. Fiscal marksmanship analysis captures the extent of errors in the budgetary forecasting. The fiscal rules can determine fiscal marksmanship, as effective fiscal consolidation procedures affect the fiscal behavior of the states in conducting the budgetary forecasts. […]

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• Working Paper No. 963 July 16, 2020

  The Early Impact of COVID-19 on Job Losses among Black Women in the United States

  Thomas Masterson, Michelle Holder, and Janelle Jones
  Abstract

  The COVID-19 pandemic seemingly appeared out of nowhere but changed nearly everything. As the pandemic unfolded, industries deemed nonessential were leveled. Many occupations in these industries are low-wage, and women constitute a greater share of America’s low-wage labor force than men. Even as some workers were able to do their jobs from their homes, a […]

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