Publications

1681 publications found

• Working Paper No. 888 April 20, 2017

  Gender, Socioeconomic Status, and Time Use of Married and Cohabiting Parents during the Great Recession

  Ebru Kongar, and Mark Price
  Abstract

  Using data from the 2003–14 American Time Use Survey (ATUS), this paper examines the relationship between the state unemployment rate and the time that opposite-sex couples with children spend on childcare activities, and how this varies by the socioeconomic status (SES), race, and ethnicity of the mothers and fathers. The time that mothers and fathers […]

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• Strategic Analysis April 14, 2017

  The Trump Effect: Is This Time Different?

  Gennaro Zezza, and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  From a macroeconomic point of view, 2016 was an ordinary year in the post–Great Recession period. As in prior years, the conventional forecasts predicted that this would be the year the economy would finally escape from the “new normal” of secular stagnation. But just as in every previous year, the forecasts were confounded by the […]

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• Policy Notes No. 1 April 06, 2017

  Inequality Update: Who Gains When Income Grows?

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  Since the 1980s, economic recoveries in the United States have been delivering the vast majority of income growth to the wealthiest households. This policy note updates the analysis in One-Pager No. 47 and Policy Note 2015/4 with the latest data through 2015, looking at the distribution of average income growth (with and without capital gains) […]

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• Working Paper No. 887 March 20, 2017

  Trump’s Bait and Switch

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  President Trump’s faux populism may deliver some immediate short-term benefits to the economy, masking the devastating long-term effects from his overall policy strategy. The latter can be termed “welfare state sabotage” and is a wholesale assault on essential public sector institutions and macroeconomic stabilization features that were built during the New Deal era and ushered […]

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• Working Paper No. 886 March 03, 2017

  How Germany’s Anti-Keynesianism Has Brought Europe to Its Knees

  Jörg Bibow
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the (lack of any lasting) impact of John Maynard Keynes’s General Theory on economic policymaking in Germany. The analysis highlights the interplay between economic history and the history of ideas in shaping policymaking in postwar (West) Germany. The paper argues that Germany learned the wrong lessons from its own history and misread […]

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• Working Paper No. 885 February 27, 2017

  Quality of Statistical Match of Household Budget Survey and SILC for Turkey

  Thomas Masterson
  Abstract

  This paper presents the quality analysis of the statistical matching conducted for a research study on household consumption behavior, household indebtedness, and inequality for Turkey. The match has been done for four years (2005, 2008, 2009, and 2012) of Household Budget Surveys (HBS) and the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC). The aim of […]

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• Working Paper No. 884 February 24, 2017

  Gendered Patterns of Time Use over the Life Cycle

  Ebru Kongar, and Emel Memiş
  Abstract

  Using data from the 2006 Turkish Time-Use Survey, we examine gender differences in time allocation among married heterosexual couples over the life cycle. While we find large discrepancies in the gender division of both paid and unpaid work at each life stage, the gender gap in paid and unpaid work is largest among parents of […]

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• Working Paper No. 883 February 24, 2017

  Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth and Innovation

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, Horst Hanusch, and Swati Khurana
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the effectiveness of public expenditures on economic growth within the analytical framework of comprehensive Neo-Schumpeterian economics. Using a fixed-effects model for G20 countries, the paper investigates the links between the specific categories of public expenditures and economic growth, captured in human capital formation, defense, infrastructure development, and technological innovation. The results reveal […]

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• Public Policy Brief No. 143 February 07, 2017

  Brazil Still in Troubled Waters

  Abstract

  Since inheriting the Brazilian presidency five months ago, the new Temer administration has successfully ratified a constitutional amendment imposing a radical, two-decades-long public spending freeze, purportedly aimed at sparking an increase in business confidence and investment. In this policy brief, Fernando Cardim de Carvalho explains why this fiscal strategy is based not only on a […]

  Download Public Policy Brief No. 143, 2017 PDF (340.91 KB)
• One-Pager No. 53 February 06, 2017

  Falling Labor Force Participation

  L. Randall Wray, and Flavia Dantas
  Abstract

  Aging demographics, “social shifts,” and other supply-side and institutional factors have commonly been blamed for the fall in the US labor force participation rate. However, depressed labor force participation for prime-age workers is likely due to a combination of insufficient aggregate demand, weak job creation, and stagnant wages—all of which have been persistent problems over […]

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• Public Policy Brief No. 142 February 03, 2017

  Full Employment: Are We There Yet?

  L. Randall Wray, and Flavia Dantas
  Abstract

  Flavia Dantas and L. Randall Wray argue that the emerging conventional wisdom—that the US economy has reached full employment—is flawed. The unemployment rate is not providing an accurate picture of the health of the labor market, and the common narrative attributing shrinking labor force engagement to aging demographics is overstated. Instead, falling prime-age participation rates […]

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• Working Paper No. 882 January 13, 2017

  Investing in Social Care Infrastructure and Employment Generation

  Kijong Kim, İpek Ilkkaracan, and Tolga Kaya
  Abstract

  This paper examines the aggregate and gender employment impact of expanding the early childhood care and preschool education (ECCPE) sector in Turkey and compares it to the expansion of the construction sector. The authors’ methodology combines input-output analysis with a statistical microsimulation approach. Their findings suggest that the expansion of the ECCPE sector creates more […]

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• Working Paper No. 881 January 11, 2017

  The Long-run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Anupam Das
  Abstract

  This paper investigates the long-term determinants of Indian government bonds’ (IGB) nominal yields. It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’s supposition that short-term interest rates are the key driver of long-term government bond yields holds over the long-run horizon, after controlling for various key economic factors such as inflationary pressure and measures of economic activity. It […]

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• Working Paper No. 880 January 04, 2017

  The Great Recession and Racial Inequality

  Edward N. Wolff, Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Fernando Rios-Avila
  Abstract

  The Great Recession had a tremendous impact on low-income Americans, in particular black and Latino Americans. The losses in terms of employment and earnings are matched only by the losses in terms of real wealth. In many ways, however, these losses are merely a continuation of trends that have been unfolding for more than two […]

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• Working Paper No. 879 December 22, 2016

  Distribution-led Growth through Methodological Lenses

  Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  This paper presents a methodological discussion of two recent “endogeneity” critiques of the Kaleckian model and the concept of distribution-led growth. From a neo-Keynesian perspective, and following Kaldor (1955) and Robinson (1956), the model is criticized because it treats distribution as quasi-exogenous, while in Skott (2016) distribution is viewed as endogenously determined by a series […]

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• Working Paper No. 878 December 12, 2016

  The Short- and Long-run Inconsistency of the Expansionary Austerity Theory

  Alberto Botta
  Abstract

  This paper provides a critical analysis of expansionary austerity theory (EAT). The focus is on the theoretical weaknesses of EAT—the extreme circumstances and fragile assumptions under which expansionary consolidations might actually take place. The paper presents a simple theoretical model that takes inspiration from both the post-Keynesian and evolutionary/institutionalist traditions. First, it demonstrates that well-designed […]

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• Working Paper No. 877 November 15, 2016

  Financial Stability and Secure Currency in a Modern Context

  Jan Kregel
  Abstract

  Against the background of modern-day monetary proposals, ranging from a return to the gold standard to the wholesale abolition of currency, this paper seeks to draw implications from David Ricardo’s Proposals for an Economical and Secure Currency for plans to reform the operation of central banks and extraordinary monetary policy. Although 200 years old, the […]

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• Working Paper No. 876 October 12, 2016

  Normalizing the Fed Funds Rate

  Flavia Dantas
  Abstract

  In December 2015, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) initiated the process of “normalization,” with the objective of gradually raising the federal funds rate back to “normal”—i.e., levels that are “neither expansionary nor contrary” and are consistent with the established 2 percent longer-run goal for the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures index and the estimated natural rate […]

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• Working Paper No. 875 September 27, 2016

  Minsky at Basel

  Giuseppe Mastromatteo, and Lorenzo Esposito
  Abstract

  The global financial crisis shattered the conventional wisdom about how financial markets work and how to regulate them. Authorities intervened to stop the panic—short-term pragmatism that spoke volumes about the robustness of mainstream economics. However, their very success in taming the collapse reduced efforts to radically change the “big bank” business model and lessened the […]

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• Working Paper No. 874 September 20, 2016

  “Engendering” Intergovernmental Transfers

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, and Abhishek Anand
  Abstract

  This paper seeks to evaluate whether a gender-sensitive formula for the inter se devolution of union taxes to the states makes the process more progressive. We have used the state-specific child sex ratio (the number of females per thousand males in the age group 0–6 years) as one of the criteria for the tax devolution. […]

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• Working Paper No. 873 September 13, 2016

  Quality of Match for Statistical Matches Used in the Development of the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty (LIMTCP) for Ghana and Tanzania

  Fernando Rios-Avila
  Abstract

  This document presents a description of the quality of match of the statistical matches used in the LIMTCP estimates prepared for Ghana and Tanzania. For Ghana, the statistical match combines the Living Standards Survey Round 6 (GLSS6) with the Ghana Time Use Survey (GTUS) 2009, and for Tanzania it combines the Household Budget Survey (THBS) […]

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• Working Paper No. 872 August 24, 2016

  Federalism, Fiscal Space, and Public Investment Spending

  Pinaki Chakraborty
  Abstract

  The primary objective of rule-based fiscal legislation at the subnational level in India is to achieve debt sustainability by placing a ceiling on borrowing and the use of borrowed resources for public capital investment by phasing out deficits in the budget revenue account. This paper examines whether the application of fiscal rules has contributed to […]

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• Working Paper No. 871 August 09, 2016

  Simulations of Employment for Individuals in LIMTCP Consumption-poor Households in Tanzania and Ghana, 2012

  Thomas Masterson, Kijong Kim, and Fernando Rios-Avila
  Abstract

  New methodology for producing employment microsimulations is introduced, with a focus on farms and household nonfarm enterprises. Previous simulations have not dealt with the issue of reduced production in farm and nonfarm household enterprises when household members are placed in paid employment. In this paper, we present a method for addressing the tradeoff between paid […]

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• Policy Notes No. 3 August 04, 2016

  The Impact of Immigration on the Native-born Unemployed

  Fernando Rios-Avila, and Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza
  Abstract

  In this policy note, Research Scholar Fernando Rios-Avila and Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, Universidad EAFIT, observe that immigration in the United States has a small but statistically significant impact on the labor market behavior of native-born unemployed workers. Their chances of transitioning from unemployment to employment are not affected by the share of immigrants in their job […]

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