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Working Paper No. 485
December 14, 2006
The Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
AbstractThis paper contrasts the conventional balance sheet approach to the analysis of economic disturbances in emerging markets with the alternative balance sheet approach that applies and extends Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis to (open) emerging market economies. Earlier balance sheet studies are found to be flawed because of a failure to disaggregate firms’ balance sheets. Examination […]
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Working Paper No. 484
December 12, 2006
Expensive Living
AbstractApart from its widely accepted direct advantages, the introduction of the euro has been accompanied by a surge of inflation in most of the EU member states. At the same time, wages–in part, wages of the unskilled–are relatively losing ground, while the purchasing power of the average European seems also to have weakened since the […]
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Research Project Report
December 04, 2006
Wealth and Economic Inequality
AbstractThis report argues that wealth is an integral aspect of economic well-being. The authors combine income and net worth to demonstrate the importance of wealth inequalities in shaping overall economic inequality and defining the disparities among population subgroups. Conventional measures of household economic well-being do not adequately reflect the advantages of asset ownership or the […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 88
November 30, 2006
US Household Deficit Spending
AbstractOver the past decade, deficit spending by consumers has supported the United States economy. Research Associate Robert Parenteau analyzes the financial balance of American households and finds that the pace of deficit spending is likely to stall and, possibly, reverse course. This reversion will jeopardize US profit and economic growth, as well as the growth […]
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Working Paper No. 483
November 30, 2006
Fisher’s Theory of Interest Rates and the Notion of “Real”
AbstractBy providing five different criticisms of the notion of real rate, the paper argues that this concept, as Fisher defined it or as a definition, is not relevant to economic analysis. Following Keynes and other post-Keynesians, the article shows that the notion of real rate is microeconomically and macroeconomically unfounded. Adjusting interest rates for inflation […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 87
November 29, 2006
Maastricht 2042 and the Fate of Europe
AbstractUnemployment in the European Union (EU) is a serious problem that threatens to disrupt the integration of accession countries, the character of individual countries, and the continued existence of the EU. European integration poses a huge conundrum for European employment because the conventional theory explaining unemployment in Europe—labor market rigidities—is wrong. According to Senior Scholar […]
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Working Paper No. 482
November 29, 2006
Net Intergenerational Transfers from an Increase in Social Security Benefits
AbstractWhen the age of death is uncertain, individuals will leave bequests–even if they have no desired bequests–simply because they will hold wealth against the possibility of living longer. Bequests are accidental. Starting from a baseline level of Social Security benefits, an increase in benefits will cause consumption to increase. However, consumption may not increase by […]
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Working Paper No. 481
November 28, 2006
An Inquiry into the Nature of Money
AbstractThe paper argues that the functional approach of money does not provide a good method to study monetary history and monetary mechanisms. An alternative approach is developed and illustrated by analyzing the role of tobacco and cowry shells in past monetary systems. It is shown that any monetary system has specific properties that most students […]
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Working Paper No. 480
November 27, 2006
Methodology and Microeconomics in the Early Work of Hyman P. Minsky
AbstractThis paper reviews the recently published doctoral thesis of Hyman P. Minsky, summarizing its main contributions to methodology and microeconomics. These were aspects of economics with which Minsky is not usually associated, but which lie at the foundation of his later work. They include critical remarks on Cambridge economics. The paper then draws out some […]
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Working Paper No. 479
November 22, 2006
European Welfare State Regimes and Their Generosity toward the Elderly
AbstractThis paper examines the generosity of the European welfare state toward the elderly. It shows how various dimensions of the welfare regimes have changed during the past 10 to 15 years and how this evolution is related to the process of economic integration. Dimensions include general generosity toward the elderly and, more specifically, generosity toward […]
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Strategic Analysis
November 14, 2006
Can Global Imbalances Continue?
AbstractIn this new Strategic Analysis, we review what we believe is the most important economic policy issue facing policymakers in the United States and abroad: the prospect of a growth recession in the United States. The possibility of recession is linked to the imbalances in the current account, government, and private sector deficits. The current […]
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Working Paper No. 478
November 03, 2006
On Lower-bound Traps
AbstractWe present a simple theoretical framework that integrates the notion of the natural or neutral interest rate, liquidity preference theory, and the monetary policy practice by modern central banks. We claim that this theory explains the conditions under which an economy will experience an aggregate demand deficiency problem within a modern institutional setting. Contrary to […]
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Working Paper No. 477
October 27, 2006
When Knowledge Is an Asset
AbstractWe study the economics of employment relationships through theoretical and empirical analyses of an unusual set of firms, large law firms. Our point of departure is the “property rights” approach that emphasizes the centrality of ownership’s legal rights to control important, nonhuman assets of the enterprise. From this perspective, large law firms are an interesting […]
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Working Paper No. 476
October 19, 2006
The “New Consensus” View of Monetary Policy
AbstractOne of the greatest achievements of the modern “new consensus” view in macroeconomics is the assertion of a nonquantity theoretic approach to monetary policy. Leading theorists and practitioners of this view have indeed rejected the quantity theory of money, and defended a return to the old Wicksellian idea of eliminating high levels of inflation by […]
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Public Policy Brief No. 86
October 18, 2006
Rethinking Trade and Trade Policy
AbstractThe theory of comparative advantage says that there are gains from trade for the global economy as a whole. In this second brief of a three-part study of the international economy, Research Associate Thomas Palley observes that comparative advantage is driven by technology, which can be influenced by human action and policy. These associations have […]
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Working Paper No. 475
August 22, 2006
Capital Stock and Unemployment
AbstractThis paper examines the proposition that capital stock relative to aggregate output has been an important variable in the determination of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) over the last four decades. The authors present new empirical evidence that lends strong support to the claim that the aggregate capital-output ratio, the real price of […]
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Working Paper No. 474
August 21, 2006
On the Minskyan Business Cycle
AbstractThe essential insight Minsky drew from Keynes was that optimistic expectations about the future create a margin, reflected in higher asset prices, which makes it possible for borrowers to access finance in the present. In other words, the capitalized expected future earnings work as the collateral against which firms can borrow in financial markets or […]
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Working Paper No. 473
August 20, 2006
The American Jewish Periphery
AbstractThis paper calls attention to the American Jewish periphery—Americans of recent Jewish origin who have only the most tenuous connections, if any, with those origins. This periphery has been growing to the point that there are now, for example, nearly a million Americans with recent Jewish origins (origins no farther back in time than the […]
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Working Paper No. 472
August 19, 2006
The Adequacy of Retirement Resources among the Soon-to-Retire, 1983–2001
AbstractA central issue confronting soon-to-retire workers (those aged 47–64) is whether they will have command over enough resources (both private and public) to maintain a decent standard of living in retirement. Typically, the adequacy of projected retirement income is judged in relation to some absolute standard (for example, the poverty threshold) and preretirement income (“replacement […]
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Working Paper No. 471
August 17, 2006
Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk
AbstractThis paper describes how stochastic population forecasts are used to inform and analyze policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. The paper first presents methods for making probabilistic forecasts of demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, and shows how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts […]
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Working Paper No. 470
August 16, 2006
Retiree Health Benefit Coverage and Retirement
AbstractEmployer-provided health benefits for workers who retire before age 65 has fallen over the last decade. We examine a cohort of male workers from the Health and Retirement Survey to explore the dynamics of retiree health benefits and the relationship between retiree health benefits and retirement behavior. A better understanding of this relationship is important […]
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Working Paper No. 469
August 11, 2006
The Changing Role of Employer Pensions
AbstractBy any measure, pension coverage should be at an all-time high: the nation is richer and workers are older. However, the pension world is a paradox, as pension security falls for middle-class workers and pension spending increases. The United States government directly and indirectly spends more than half a trillion dollars on the elderly each […]
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Working Paper No. 468
August 10, 2006
Global Demographic Trends and Provisioning for the Future
AbstractThe world’s population is aging. Virtually no nation is immune to this demographic trend and the challenges it brings for future generations. Relative growth of the elderly population is fueling debate about reform of social security programs in the United States and other developed nations. In the United States, the total discounted shortfall of Social […]
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Working Paper No. 467
August 09, 2006
The Financial Requirements of Achieving Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment
AbstractAlthough the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have been ratified in global and national forums, they have not yet been incorporated into operational planning within governments or international organizations. The weak link between the policies and the investments needed for their implementation is one barrier to progress. An assessment of the resources required is a critical […]
Download Working Paper No. 467 PDF (337.58 KB)