Publications

1681 publications found

• Working Paper No. 1043 February 14, 2024

  Interest Rate Dynamics: An Examination of Mainstream and Keynesian Empirical Studies

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper critically reviews both mainstream and Keynesian empirical studies of interest rate dynamics. It assesses the key findings of a selected number of these studies, surveying the debates between the mainstream and the Keynesian schools. It also explores the debates on interest rate dynamics within the Post Keynesian school of thought. Lastly, the paper […]

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• Working Paper No. 1042 February 13, 2024

  Saving Social Security

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  For more than 25 years, the Social Security Trust Fund was projected to run out of money in 2033 (give or take a few years), potentially causing benefits to be severely reduced in the absence of corrective legislative action. Today (February 2024), projections are made by the Social Security Administration that indicate that future benefits […]

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• Working Paper No. 1040 February 02, 2024

  COP28 and Environmental Federalism: Empirical Evidence from an Emerging Economy, India

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, Amandeep Kaur, Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, Divy Rangan, and Sanjana Das
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of COP28, this paper investigates the impact of intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IGFT) on climate change commitments in India. Within the analytical framework of environmental federalism, we tested the evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) using a panel model covering 27 Indian states from 2003 to 2020. The results suggest a positive […]

• Working Paper No. 1039 February 02, 2024

  Can the Philippines attain 6.5–8 Percent Growth During 2023–28?

  Jesus Felipe, and Manuel L. Albis
  Abstract

  We expand the standard balance-of-payments–constrained (BOPC) growth rate model in three directions. First, we take into account the separate contributions of exports in goods, exports in services, overseas remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Second, we use state-space estimation techniques to obtain time-varying parameters of the relevant coefficients. Third, we test for the endogeneity […]

• Working Paper No. 1041 February 02, 2024

  Amazon Green Recovery and Labor Market in Brazil

  Luiza Nassif Pires, Gilberto Tadeu Lima, Pedro Romero Marques, Tainari Taioka, and José Bergamin
  Abstract

  Announced in June 2021, the never-implemented Green Recovery Plan for the Brazilian Legal Amazon Region (GRP) would be a green transition initiative to be carried out by the state governments of the region. The GRP represented the first large-scale proposal aiming at the transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil and offered a preliminary framework […]

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• Working Paper No. 1038 January 29, 2024

  Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren—90 Years Later

  Jörg Bibow
  Abstract

  This paper revisits Keynes’s (1930) essay titled “The economic possibilities for our grandchildren.” We discuss the three broader trends identified by Keynes that he expected would come to characterize the socio-economic evolution of advanced countries under individualistic capitalism: first, continued technological progress and capital accumulation as the main drivers of exponential growth in economic possibilities; […]

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• Working Paper No. 1037 January 10, 2024

  Markups, Profit Shares, and Cost-Push-Profit-Led Inflation

  Michalis Nikiforos, and Simon Grothe
  Abstract

  The post-pandemic surge in inflation was accompanied by a surge in the corporate share of profits. As a result, several economists and policy makers have given to it names such as “profit-led inflation” or “sellers’ inflation.” The present paper discusses the extent to which profit-led inflation, as an explanation for the recent surge in inflation, […]

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• Working Paper No. 1036 January 05, 2024

  The Estimation of Production Functions with Monetary Values

  Jesus Felipe, John McCombie, and Aashish Mehta
  Abstract

  For decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most […]

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• Working Paper No. 1035 January 04, 2024

  The Swedish Monetary System from a Balance Sheet Perspective

  Dirk Ehnts, and Jussi Ora
  Abstract

  In this paper, we discuss the balance sheet mechanics of the Swedish government. We examine spending, government bond purchases, and tax payments. As long as the Swedish central bank, which is created through Swedish laws, supports the Swedish central government, it cannot run out of money. The Swedish government therefore plays a large role in […]

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• One-Pager No. 71 December 14, 2023

  Has the Time Arrived for a Job Guarantee in Europe?

  Rania Antonopoulos
  Abstract

  In comparison to the policy responses in the aftermath of the 2008–9 global financial crisis, the reactions of EU policymakers to the combined shocks of the COVID-19 crisis and Ukraine-Russia conflict reveal a greater willingness to deploy public finance in support of the population. Yet, while this display of renewed solidarity is commendable, policymakers have […]

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• Working Paper No. 1034 December 08, 2023

  Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: A GARCH Analysis

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper models the month-over-month change in euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the change in the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on the change in EUR swap yields of different maturity tenors, after controlling for various macroeconomic and financial variables, such as the month-over-month change […]

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• Working Paper No. 1033 November 20, 2023

  The Impact of Climate Change on the Palestinian Sectoral Reallocation of Labor

  Sameh Hallaq, and Yousuf Daas
  Abstract

  The research leverages yearly variations in climate variables, such as rainfall and temperature, across the West Bank from 1999 to 2018 to assess their influence on individuals' decisions to stay in the agricultural sector. The main findings suggest that an increase in rainfall in the previous year is associated with a higher proportion of workers […]

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• Working Paper No. 1032 October 16, 2023

  Applying OECD Policy Evaluation Criteria to Child Protection Schemes in India

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, Amandeep Kaur, Jitesh Yadav, and Balamuraly B
  Abstract

  The policy evaluation is a crucial component in analyzing the efficacy of public spending in translating the money spent into desired outcomes. Using OECD evaluation criteria, we analyzed the child protection schemes of Odisha to understand whether legal commitments on child protection are translated into fiscal commitments. The intergovernmental fiscal transfers and state-targeted programs for […]

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• Working Paper No. 1031 October 09, 2023

  A Stock-Flow Ecological Model from a Latin American Perspective

  Lorenzo Nalin, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, Leonardo Rojas Rodriguez, Esteban Pérez-Caldentey, and José Eduardo Alatorre
  Abstract

  This study aims to develop an ecological stock-flow consistent (SFC) model based on the Latin American–stylized facts regarding economic, financial, and environmental features. We combine the macro-financial theoretical framework by Pérez-Caldentey et al. (2021, 2023) and the ecological modeling of Carnevali et al. (2020) and Dafermos et al. (2018). We discuss two scenarios that test […]

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• Working Paper No. 1030 October 09, 2023

  Economic Transformation and Growth in the Philippines

  Jesus Felipe, Edgar Desher Empeño, and Brendan Miranda
  Abstract

  The main gateway for the Philippines to develop and become an upper-middle-income economy—and eventually, a high-income economy—is to expedite the shift of workers out of agriculture and to produce and export more complex products with a higher income elasticity of demand. The actual growth rate is constrained by the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate, about 6 […]

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• Working Paper No. 1029 September 07, 2023

  Is Anything Left of the Debate about the Sources of Growth in East Asia Thirty Years Later?

  Jesus Felipe, and John McCombie
  Abstract

  The year 2023 commemorates the 30th anniversary of the publication of the influential, yet controversial, study The East Asian Miracle report by the World Bank (1993). An important part of the report’s analysis was concerned with the sources of growth in East Asia. This was based on the neoclassical decomposition of growth into productivity and […]

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• Policy Notes No. 4 August 23, 2023

  Effects of Forced Formalization (Demonetization) in the Indian Economy 

  Nischal Dhungel
  Abstract

  Nischal Dhungel examines the impact of India’s demonetization experiment—an effort at “forced formalization” of the economy. He urges a more organic approach to formalization, pairing efforts to bring the unbanked population into the banking system with greater funding and accessibility for India’s signature employment guarantee program.

  Download Policy Note 2023/4 PDF (388.60 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1028 August 21, 2023

  Contractionary Effects of Foreign Price Shocks (and Potentially Expansionary Effects of Inflation)

  Michalis Nikiforos, and Simon Grothe
  Abstract

  Using the model proposed in Krugman and Taylor’s “Contractionary effects of devaluation” (1978), we examine the macroeconomic effects of shocks to foreign prices. We show that these shocks can be contractionary for two reasons: (i) because they imply a loss of income if an economy has a trade deficit or import prices increase proportionally more […]

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• Working Paper No. 1027 August 07, 2023

  Structural Change and Gender Sectoral Segregation in Sub-Saharan Africa

  Izaskun Zuazu
  Abstract

  Structural change has long been at the core of economic development debates. However, the gender implications of structural change are still largely unexplored. This paper helps to fill this gap by analyzing the role of structural change in the gender distribution of sectoral employment in sub-Saharan African countries. I employ aggregate and disaggregate measures of […]

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• Working Paper No. 1026 August 01, 2023

  Banking Sector, Distributive Conflict, and Monetary Theory of Distribution

  Riccardo Zolea
  Abstract

  This paper analyzes the implications of distributional contrast for the monetary theory of distribution. The first step is to try to introduce the banking sector within Pivetti's monetary distribution theory approach. Pivetti in fact does not analyze the links between the central bank and the banking sector. It therefore seems interesting to study what role […]

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• Working Paper No. 1025 August 01, 2023

  Unconventional Monetary Policy or Automatic Stabilizers?

  Nitin Nair
  Abstract

  The purpose of public policy, expansionary or contractionary, is to encourage the expansion of income, output, and employment. Theory decides the nature and kind of policy, and the underlying mechanics that result in expansion. Keynes (1964) brings money and a monetary production economy to the forefront of economic analysis, yet in the General Theory, he […]

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• Working Paper No. 1024 July 26, 2023

  When Minsky and Godley Met Structuralism

  Nitin Nair
  Abstract

  Underdevelopment is often conceived as being reproduced domestically. This paper emphasizes the international forces that enable the persistence of underdevelopment. We first explore how the currency hierarchy imposes a dependency relation between developed and underdeveloped economies. We improvise and quantify the currency hierarchy using ratios from the consolidated sovereign balance sheet. Using the improvisation of […]

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• Policy Notes No. 3 July 24, 2023

  In Defense of Low Interest Rates

  James K. Galbraith
  Abstract

  In recalling John Maynard Keynes’s revolutionary theory of interest, reviewing the doctrines Keynes sought to overthrow, and analyzing the structural transformations of the US economy, James K. Galbraith maintains there is no alternative to a policy of low interest rates. However, such a policy cannot be effective, he argues, without a radical restructuring of the […]

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• Strategic Analysis July 20, 2023

  Will the US Debt Ceiling Deal Derail the Pandemic Recovery?

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza, Michalis Nikiforos, and Giuliano Toshiro Yajima
  Abstract

  In this Strategic Analysis, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Michalis Nikiforos, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza discuss how the current state and structural features of the US economy might affect its future trajectory. The recent recovery after the pandemic has been remarkable, when compared to previous cycles, and offers evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policy. […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, July 2023 PDF (1.54 MB)