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  Working Paper No. 986

  Keynes’s Theories of the Business Cycle

  This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes’s theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different “theories” of business fluctuations. With different theoretical frameworks in a 30-year span, the driver of fluctuations—namely cyclical […]
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  Blog

  The “Thing” with Job Guarantee Programs…

  In a February 18th front page article in the business section of the New York Times, Eduardo Porter surveys the potential for a job guarantee program. After starting with the caveat issued by Republican politicians—why trust your life choices to bureaucrats?—the piece goes on to present opinions of various experts on employment programs. It is [...]
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  One-Pager No. 65

  COVID Relief and the Inflation Warriors

  With the unveiling of President Biden’s nearly $2 trillion proposal for addressing the COVID-19 crisis, Democrats appear keen to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Great Recession—most notably the inadequate fiscal response. Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray observe that while Democrats are not falling for the “deficit bogeyman” this time, critics have pushed the […]
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  Working Paper No. 985

  Has Japan Been Following Modern Money Theory Without Recognizing It?

  Modern Money Theory (MMT) economists have used Japan as an example of a country that demonstrates that high deficits and debt do not lead to insolvency, high interest rates, or inflation. MMT insists that governments that issue their own sovereign currency cannot be forced into insolvency, that they can make all payments as they come […]
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  Working Paper No. 984

  The Empirics of Long-Term Mexican Government Bond Yields

  This paper presents empirical models of Mexican government bond (MGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data. The current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on MGB yields, after controlling for inflation and growth in industrial production. John Maynard Keynes claimed that government bond yields move in lockstep with the short-term interest rate. The models […]
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  Working Paper No. 983

  Intrahousehold Allocation of Household Production

  In this working paper, we analyze factors that may explain gender differences in the allocation of time to household production in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses time use survey data to analyze the determinants of time spent on household production by husbands and wives in nuclear families in Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, and South Africa. We […]
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  Summary No. 1

  Summary Winter 2021

  This issue features two strategic analyses: the first finds that while the disbursement of EU funds would help hasten Greece’s recovery, getting closer to the pre-pandemic growth trend requires further fiscal action; the second, for Italy, cautions that the government’s seeming commitment to use European funds to reduce public debt through expenditure cuts aims at […]
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  Blog

  The IMF as Deficit Owl? What’s Wrong with This Argument?

  It seems the IMF aviary has turned on the hawks and embraced the deficit owls. Has the IMF joined the policy shift to MMT? Yes, in part, but it appears to be a viral form of MMT: according to Vitor Gaspar, the IMF’s head of fiscal policy, “Nations’ first priority should be vaccination, while the [...]
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  Public Policy Brief No. 154

  Another Bretton Woods Reform Moment

  This policy brief explores a route to remaking the international financial system that would avoid the contradictions inherent in some of the prevailing reform proposals currently under discussion. Senior Scholar Jan Kregel argues that the willingness of central banks to consider electronic currency provides an opening to reconsider a truly innovative reform of the international […]
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  Blog

  Jiu-Jitsu Comes to the Stock Market

  The core philosophy of this Japanese defensive art used by the weak against the stronger Samurai is to mobilize the opponent’s greater force to your own advantage. Many have criticized the run-up in the quotation of the GameStop shares as a violation of market principles or regulations. Far from it, it simply represents the fact [...]
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  Working Paper No. 982

  The Economic Problem: From Barter to Commodity Money to Electronic Money

  The success of alternative payment systems has led to discussion of various proposals to replace money with a new technology-based system, though many lack a clear idea of what exactly is the “money” they seek to replace. We begin by presenting the explanation of money’s role in the economy embraced by most mainstream economists and […]
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  Policy Notes No. 1

  Keynes’s Clearing Union Is Alive and Well and Living in Your Mobile Phone

  While governments may consider implementation of John Maynard Keynes’s original clearing union proposal for the international financial architecture too difficult or radical, Senior Scholar Jan Kregel notes that the private sector has already produced a virtual equivalent of an international global monetary system. Currently, this system is employed as an extension of the international mobile […]