Research Topics

Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy—namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is present, consumer demand has been improving as the property market stabilized and policies to bolster domestic demand were and continue to be effective in reflating the economy. China’s debt is predominantly internal and semi-public; the central government could leverage up to resolve the local government debt conundrum. A talent dividend and employment optimization could offset the dissipating population dividend; and finally, China’s high-quality opening, its participation in the multilateral system and its meaningful engagement with the Global South help counteract the decoupling/de-risking strategies of the US. In sum, while challenges abound, China’s sound economic foundations and sensible developmental and macroeconomic policies help to propel economic growth, structural transformation, and green transition.  

Comparative Evidence for Developed, Semi-Industrialized, and Low-Income Agricultural Economies

This paper applies a robust empirical methodology, which considers issues relating to cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, to inspect the contributions of gender equality and factor income distribution to an economy’s growth path. A dynamic model of aggregate demand is estimated on a unique panel dataset from 46 countries that are further grouped into developed (DC), semi-industrialized (SIEs), and low-income agricultural economies (LIAEs).
 
The empirical findings suggest that, overall, growth is driven by investment in the short run and domestic demand in the long run. In the short run, the results suggest that low female wages act as a stimulus to growth in SIEs but may promote contractionary pressures on demand in the long run. For LIAEs and DCs, the effect of improved labor market conditions for women—leaving men’s constant—on demand-led growth conditions are positive in the short run but may harm long-term growth prospects.
 
In all, the empirical evidence, combined with the stylized facts about institutional and economic inequality, suggests that the impact of gender and income inequality on macroeconomic outcomes will differ depending on the economic structure and level of economic development.

This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth. Globalization has so diversified global economic activity that no country or region can act as the lone locomotive of global growth. Political reasoning suggests that EM countries are not likely to abandon export-led growth, nor will the international community implement the international arrangements needed for successful domestic demand-led growth. Consequently, the global economy likely faces asymmetric stagnation.